Off Grid Opportunity in Nigeria – Upscaling minigrids for least cost and timely access to electricity
Nigeria is the biggest and most attractive off-grid opportunity in Africa, and one of the best locations in the world for minigrids and solar home systems
Nigeria has the largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa (GDP of $405 billion), has 180 million people, and a flourishing economy (CAGR of 15% since 2000).
A significant amount of the economy is powered largely by small-scale generators (10–15 GW) and almost 50% of the population have limited or no access to the grid.
As a result Nigerians and their businesses spend almost $14 billion (₦ 5 trillion) annually on inefficient generationthat is expensive ($0.40/kWh or ₦140/kWh or more), of poor quality, noisy, and polluting.
Developing off-grid alternatives to complement the grid creates a $9.2B/year (₦3.2T/year) market opportunity for minigrids and solar home systems that will save $4.4B/year(₦1.5T/year) for Nigerian homes and businesses.
There is a large potential for scaling—installing 10,000 minigrids of 100 kW each can occur by 2023 and only meet 30% of anticipated demand.
Getting off-grid solutions to scale and commercial viability in Nigeria will unlock an enormous market opportunity in Sub-Saharan Africa across 350 million people in countries with smaller demand and/or less-robust economies.
The Rural Electrification Agency (REA), tasked with developing the Nigerian off-grid power market, has created the Off-Grid Electrification Strategywhich is part of the Power Sector Recovery Programme (PSRP).